In centre renal dialysis modelling 

The problem 

The Waikato health system faced a significant challenge in meeting the increasing demand for in-centre haemodialysis (ICHD) services at the Hamilton Regional Renal Centre. The need to relocate the Renal Centre due to the development of a new Acute Mental Health inpatient facility exacerbated the situation, raising concerns about whether the new centre would have sufficient capacity to meet future demand over the next decade. The challenge was compounded by regional factors, such as capacity limitations in surrounding satellite centres, which resulted in overflow patients being sent to Hamilton, further straining its resources. 

Our approach

Synergia was engaged to develop a demand model to project the required capacity for ICHD services at the Hamilton Regional Renal Centre over the next ten years.

The approach included: 

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• Utilising data from multiple sources, including population projections, patient data, and staffing information, the model projected demand under various growth scenarios. 

• Four key scenarios were analysed, ranging from a base case with no increase in regional capacity to more optimistic scenarios involving capacity expansion in satellite centres and the establishment of a new satellite centre in the northern corridor between Hamilton and Auckland. 

• The modelling considered the number of dialysis chairs required, the optimal distribution of patients across the region, and staffing needs, particularly the demand for registered renal nurses under each scenario. 

Impacts

The project provided the Waikato health system with critical insights and recommendations that enabled informed decision-making: 

• Strategic capacity expansion: The model highlighted the necessity of expanding the number of dialysis chairs in Hamilton and the surrounding regions, ensuring that the health system could accommodate the projected increase in patients. 

• Optimised regional services: The scenario analysis demonstrated the benefits of regional capacity optimisation, which would reduce the burden on the Hamilton centre by better utilising satellite centres and potentially establishing a new northern satellite centre. 

• Future-proofing healthcare services: By providing clear projections and recommendations, the project helped the Waikato hospital plan for the future, ensuring that the Regional Renal Centre would have the necessary infrastructure and staffing to meet patient needs over the next decade. 

• Informed resource allocation: The insights into staffing requirements allowed the hospital to plan for the recruitment and training of registered renal nurses, ensuring that the quality of care would not be compromised as demand increases.